IRAN: Leadership 'more divided than ever,' analyst says: Via Babylon & Beyond | Los Angeles Times.

In a new commentary, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C., considers Iran’s political future after today’s address by the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Khamenei has always had uncertain credentials as a religious scholar and he now has uncertain credibility as a leader. Everyone in Iran, the Middle East, and the world now has reason to question the legitimacy of every element of Iran's leadership and the Iranian revolution. The Iranian leadership now has to realize that it is more divided than was ever apparent before and that Iran's people and the world know it.”

Cordesman’s full commentary follows.

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran. We do not yet know whether Ahmadinejad will stay, whether Mousavi will somehow be given a second chance, and if the ongoing political struggle will affect the security of the Supreme Leader.  Mass demonstrations are not national popular uprisings, and popular uprisings do not always lead to successful revolutions. Truly radical change may come, but it has not come yet. One has only to contrast the radically different outcomes of what happened in East Germany and Tiananmen Square to realize that "experts" cannot predict the nature and outcome of the events now taking place in Iraq.

What is clear ... from his Friday sermon is that the Supreme Leader has backed Ahmadinejad and the election. It also is clear that any reliance on the Council of Guardians to review the election puts the review firmly under those loyal to the Supreme Leader. Since Khamenei controls the media, security forces, military, intelligence, and justice system this should ultimately give him the power to suppress popular protests -- particularly if he continues to rely on quiet, selective arrests rather than the kind of open repression that could trigger a true popular uprising.

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